Friday, July 30, 2010

Players of July, 2010

Congrats to the Players of July:

HITTER - 1B Adrian Gonzalez (SF) - .307, 12 HR, 25 RBI
PITCHER - RHP John Smoltz (QBC) - 4-0, 1.50 ERA, 42 K's, 5 BB
ROOKIE HITTER - LF Chirs Pettit (OKC) - .304, 1 HR, 12 RBI
ROOKIE PITCHER - RHP Adam Miller (LAB) - 1-2, 2.80 ERA, 30 K's, 9 BB

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Around the League - 08/02/10

Let's see where we stand as we enter August.

EAST

- Atlanta, who already clinched a playoff spot, isn't slowing down in the 2nd half. The Flyers have a 3 game lead in the 2nd half, and a 6 game cushion for best overall record. The team has finally gotten on the plus side of the run differential, but are still playing way ahead of the expected pace. Any trades on the horizon to shore up the pitching?

- Jersey City played well in July, but are losing ground. The offense continues to click, but the pitching is hit or miss. Adding Rich Harden was a good gamble, but he's been pretty average since coming over from Miami.

- Columbus just can't get it together. The offense is great, the starting pitching is great, but the team went .500 for the month of July. Time to trade for some bullpen help?

- The Sharks are playing much better baseball, and sit just 5 games out of a playoff berth (after a 34-44 first half). How long do they hold out hope before selling? There are some valuable trade pieces that they could move before 8/31.

- It's gone from bad to worse for New York, who has completely fallen off the map in the July. So what's the plan heading into 2011? Which pieces can be moved, and what does the team need for a better shot next season?

WEST

- Someone break up the Isotopes!! Springfield is 19-9 in the second half and nearly back to .500. More importantly, they have a 5.5 game lead for a playoff berth (after a 32-45 first half). Here's your argument FOR the 1st half/2nd half playoff system; a team struggles to get it going in the first half, but puts the pieces together late. The return of Carlos Lee has really picked up this offense.

- Kansas has slowed down since clinching its playoff spot, but still lead the overall West standings. Ryan Braun is now second in the league with 37 homers, and he's tied with Justin Upton at 81 RBI. The team has tried Gavin Floyd for 5th starter, and he's been as bad as everyone else.

- OKC looks like a team that is destined to just miss the post season. Without a big surge these final 2 months, the Bisons look like a decent team who will have nothing to show for it. At least Max Scherzer seems to have Goat of the Year wrapped up.

- La Brea just missed that playoff spot in June, but have now completely fallen apart. Weird stat of the day: Chien-Ming Wang has made 22 starts, but has just 8 decisions (4-4). Is there a major league record for most no-decisions in a season?

- Sioux Falls had the worst record heading into July, and though they're still not good, they've played better. Adrian Gonzalez is going nuts, leading all of SLB with 38 long balls. But man, that pitching is UGLY.

WORLD

- Quebec is the second "worst to first" success story of the second half, though they haven't done it with as much style as Springfield. Still, the Horned Frogs are 16-11 so far, good for a 2.5 game lead heading into August. Roy Oswalt is a big reason, as he stands at 13-3 with an incredible 159:14 K/BB ratio.

- Brisbane clinched a playoff spot with a .500 first half record, and so far in the second half they are..... .500. At least the team is consistent. Good thing for the Koalas that they could sneak that playoff berth early, as they are quickly losing ground to Quebec.

- The Cormorants made a valiant push in June to get within 3 games of the playoff spot, but haven't been able to stay hot in July. While they sit at the same 3 games out, their offense isn't keeping them in the low scoring games that their pitching is providing. Getting Kurt Suzuki is a plus, but the team needs bats.

- Caracas simply needs arms. They have three hitters with 80+ RBI already, but can't keep the ball in the yard. King Felix and Santana can't do it all by themselves here.

Saturday, July 24, 2010

Midseason Report 2010 - World Division

The World Division teams are pretty happy that they get a playoff berth out of their division, because every team is under .500. First place Brisbane has only the 7th best winning percentage in the league, but the division is separated by just 2 games top to bottom. Normally four losing teams would be sellers at the deadline, but this season, the one that pulls off the best trade is probably the team to make the playoffs.

Brisbane Koalas

The Koalas have the best team ERA in the league, but are near the bottom in runs scored. In other words, they're the opposite of Jersey City, but with worse results. The team has played well in Australia, but have the second most road losses (30) in the SLB.

It's kind of a no-name offense in Brisbane, as Carl Crawford and Ian Kinsler are your offensive leaders. The team hasn't gotten as much out of Joey Votto or Nick Markakis as they'd hoped, but the team is pretty young and should improve. Catcher has been an automatic out most of the year, while shortstop has also been mostly non-productive.

The pitching has been outstanding, which has been surprising considering the lack of "superstars" on the staff. Jason Marquis started hot, but got hurt, so Clayton Kershaw came in and has impressed. Aaron Cook, Joel Piniero....not who you'd expect to ride the leaderboards in ERA, but the Koalas have done a great job getting the most out if its pitchers.

The bullpen is arguably the best in baseball. Outside of a few rough ERA's (Zavada, Webb), the pen is stacked with sub-3.00 ERA's. Can an arm or two be packaged for a power bat?

Caracas Bolivares

The more things change, the more they stay the same. GM Tom Hey always seems to put together a team that pounds the heck out of the ball, but struggles to keep runs off the board. So it goes with Caracas, who are 3rd in runs scored, but 13th in team ERA. Will there be any starting pitching available at the deadline?

Jacoby Ellsbury for MVP? The young center fielder has 66 extra base hits (including 17 triples). Then there is just power everywhere in the heart of the order, with Prince Fielder and Alex Rodriguez, plus All-Star Chris Coghlan and his .330 average. The only player who has really struggled is Dan Uggla, who has been replaced by Luis Valbuena.

While Johan Santana and Felix Hernandez have been nails at the top of the rotation, there has been a lot of problems elsewhere. J.A. Happ has been knocked around, and John Lester has struggled with injuries. The team thought they were getting a great bargain in Livan Hernandez, but you get what you pay for.

The bullpen just isn't good. The lowest ERA (Litsch) is 4.31, and it's downhill from there. Is there anyone in the minors who could get a few outs?


Quebec Horned Frogs

The "hottest" of the World teams is Quebec, who has pulled to within a 1/2 game behind Brisbane (and tied with Caracas). They are fairly middle of the pack statistically, but haven't been able to put together a sustained win streak. Throw in some injury problems, and you have a team that can't get it's head above water.

The biggest home run hitter was a player who wasn't even drafted. After David Ortiz was injured on Opening Day, GM Michael Taylor signed Jim Thome to fill in, and the vet has responded with 20 dingers. Alfonso Soriano leads the team in RBI, while JD Drew is the SLG leader. In other words, lots of veterans. First round pick Dustin Pedroia is out for the year with a torn muscle.

Really great starting pitching, but it hasn't been enough. Veterans Oswalt and Smoltz head up the rotation, while the younger arms like Duke and Reyes have kept up. Tim Hudson has struggled, and has been demoted to the pen. Right now, all five starters have sub-4.00 ERA's.

Pretty bad. When Dan Wheeler is your premiere reliever, you've got issues. Dempster, Embree, Belisle.....no one can get the job done.

Fremantle Cormorants

The other team from down under is in last place, but just 2 games out of first. The draft philosophy was about pitching first, and it has worked, with the team ERA sitting 3rd in the league. Unfortunately, the offense is dead last in runs scored and home runs.

Not a single .300 hitter in this lineup, and little to no power. Mark Teixeira leads the team with 19 homers, but no one else has more than 10. Kurt Suzuki was putting up some nice numbers at catcher, but then got hurt, while the outfield has totally underperformed all season.

Outside of Carlos Zambrano (5.52 ERA), the starters have been very good. CC Sabathia started the All Star Game thanks to a 10-6, 2.63 first half mark. Burnett and Lackey have been great, and youngster Chris Narveson has held his own filling in for Matt Cain, who made just a single start before going out for the year.

Oh look, another team with bullpen woes. Mike Burns has been the only reliever worth mentioning, as even closer Jonathan Papelbon has been average at best.

Thursday, July 22, 2010

Midseason Report 2010 - West Division

The West Division closely mirrors the East, with a three team race at the top, and two sellers at the bottom. Not that the top and bottom teams make sense, mind you, as there have been some very lucky (and rather unlucky) teams so far. There is no clear front runner here, so a key trade could be what makes one team make their playoff run.

Kansas Twisters

Kansas has the #1 scoring offense in the league, averaging 5.7 runs per game. Like Jersey City, they lean heavily on their offense to offset a pretty mediocre pitching staff, but the addition of an arm or two could put the team over the top.

The unlikely star of the Twisters offense is Justin Upton, who is tied with Ryan Braun for the team lead in HR (30), and has been on the run production leaderboards all season. With Ichiro and Alexi Ramirez excelling at the top of the order, the whole lineup has clicked. Even AJ Pierzynski has 24 HR from the catcher spot (who saw that coming?)

Starting pitching has underperformed all year. Only the 46 year old Randy Johnson has an ERA below 4.00, while projected staff ace Chris Carpenter has struggled all year. Is it time to give Jonathan Sanchez or John Danks a shot in the rotation? They can't do much worse than Armando Galarraga or Shaun Marcum have....

The bullpen isn't much better, and needs to be addressed. Why has Taylor Buchholz been given the ball 29 times when he has done nothing but toss batting practice every time out? Why is Jonathan Sanchez wasting his talents in relief?

Oklahoma City Bison

How is OKC only 1 game out of first? They're being outscored, half of their starting lineup is on the shelf, and they can't really pitch. It really makes no sense, but Bison fans are enjoying the success while it lasts.

Rollins, Iwamura, Kemp and Ibanez are all on the DL, yet the team continues to score. After a rough first month, first round pick Evan Longoria has really stepped it up, and now leads the team in RBI. Ryan Ludwick and Raul Ibanez have provided good power, while Carlos Gonzalez has been a nice surprise in the OF. There has been no attempt to send a catcher of even middling ability on the field each day, so it's no surprise that the position has been a black hole.

Though there have been some very good performances on the pitching staff, they've struggled overall. Ted Lilly has been surprisingly effective, but Josh Johnson has struggled, and Scott Kazmir has flat out sucked. Then there is Max Scherzer; does this guy have naked photos of the manager's wife or something? How does he keep getting the ball every 5th day?

The bullpen is getting by with smoke and mirrors. Outside of Jonathan Broxton, most of the relief has been average to poor, yet they haven't cost the team too many games. Saito is 5-0 with a 5.09 ERA (as one example). Time to upgrade?


La Brea Dire Wolves

The Dire Wolves lead the West for awhile early in the season, but have found themselves in a struggle for the division title. Despite a roster full of mostly "okay" players, La Brea is 8 game over .500 and in contention.

Many GM's and critics scratched their heads at the pick of Matt Wieters in the first round, but the young catcher has played pretty well. After missing nearly a month to injury, Wieters is OPSing around .850 and has drawn a lot of walks. Cristian Guzman has been the spark plug at the top of the order, batting .321 and stealing 28 bases. The rest of the offense centers around the outfield and Ryan Howard, who is hitting HR's at a good clip.

Somehow the team has done just fine with a rotation full of #3 starters. Josh Towers has been very surprising, as has Chien-Ming Wang. Josh Beckett has underperformed, but that has been offset by the great pitching of Justin Duchscherer.

Not super great, but good enough so far. Mike Adams and Jon Link have been very good, while Mariano Rivera and Brandon League have been good enough. They could use an upgrade in middle relief, but who doesn't?

Springfield Isotopes

The Isotopes went pitching, pitching, pitching in the initial draft, but have been hamstrung all season by the under-performing staff. Though the team has improved lately, it has dug itself a 10 game hole that it looks unlikely to climb out of without some personnel changes.

Springfield simply doesn't hit. Or score runs. Victor Martinez leads the team 45 RBI, and the only .300 hitters are probable Rookie of the Year Gaby Sanchez and injured Carlos Lee. Hunter has hit well, but can't get off the bench. The middle infield is terrible, as Zobrist and Ryan have combined for 10 HR and 40 RBI. It hasn't been nearly enough.

Who would have thought a starting rotation with Lincecum, Greinke, Escobar and Hamels would do so poorly? Lincecum had a terrible start, but has shaved a whole run off his ERA over the past 6 weeks. Hamels has been good, and Scott Baker has been better than projected, while Greinke has struggled mightily.

There have been some unreal seasons out of the pen for the Isotopes. Franky Rodriguez might get some Cy Young consideration if he keeps this up: 1-1, 1.01 ERA, .131 OpAvg. Crazy good. Then you have Rafael Soriano, who is almost as good at 4-0, 1.59 ERA, .104 OpAvg (!!!!!) Does Springfield keep these guys for a second half run, or do they get the best possible deal they can at the trade deadline?


Sioux Falls Tomahawks

What a miserable season in South Dakota. While the team hits a lot of home runs, they also sport the worst team ERA in the league (5.75). A team of young talent has not managed to keep up with league full of veterans, and as a result, the Tomahawks have the only sub-.400 winning percentage in SLB.

Sioux Falls can slug it with the best of the teams in the league. BJ Upton, Jason Werth and Adrian Gonzalez all have 20+ HR, while youngster Gordan Beckham has 18 of his own. Even young players like Lou Marson have double digit homers, which is a good sign for the future.

Huge disappointments all around on this promising young staff. David Price has been destroyed, Justin Verlander mediocre, and Yovani Gallardo criminally awful. Matt Garza has been okay, but the team has to be worried that its decision to draft young is going to take longer than planned to pan out.

The bullpen hasn't been much better. Cla Meridith is the only tradeable commodity, and even he hasn't been spectacular.

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Midseason Report 2010 - East Division

The top two records in SLB are in the East this year, with Atlanta and Jersey City in a virtual tie for first place. The Jackals are just percentage points ahead of the Flyers with 2 games in hand, and hit the break as the hottest team in the league, having won 8 of their last 10 games. Columbus is right there at 3 games back, but has scuffled in the past few weeks. The Knights and Sharks are out of first by double digits, and look like sellers before the trade deadline.

Jersey City Jackals

Despite sporting the 4th worst team ERA in the league, JC boasts the best winning percentage. The offense is getting the job done, scoring 476 runs (second best in the league). First round pick Joe Mauer has been everything fans had hoped for, hitting a robust .368/.426/.651 from the catcher's spot. Orlando Hudson is tearing it up from the lead off spot, while Josh Hamilton leads the team in long balls. Cliff Floyd was signed as an undrafted free agent and has been terrific for the Jackals.

On the pitching side, things aren't quite as impressive, but have been good enough so far. The starters aren't terrible, but no one has stepped up as the "ace" of the staff. Hiroki Kuroda started off hot (winning Pitcher of the Month in April), but has cooled off lately. James Shields has been solid, while Mark Buehrle is as likely to give up 7 runs as he is to throw a shut out. The front office made a trade for Miami's Rich Harden, hoping a change of scenery (and a playoff race) would get him on track, and while he was brilliant in his first start, he gave up 4 runs while recording a single out in his second. The bullpen has been pretty solid, holding onto leads in high scoring games.

Atlanta Flyers

The Flyers are tied for first and loving every game that they can prove their draft critics wrong; GM Jim Masters didn't take a single pitcher until Round 23, and pulled some pitchers off the scrap heap to cobble a rotation together. The team has been unbelievably lucky, going 15 games over .500 despite being outscored by their opponents to date. When does that luck start running out?

The offense is good but not great. Matt Holliday is near the top of the leader board in RBI, while first round pick Hanley Ramirez has put up some solid numbers. Pablo Sandoval and Adam Lind have filled out the lineup nicely, but there have been holes, particularly at catcher and center field.

The starting rotation in Atlanta has been really hit or miss. Edwin Jackson and Jeremy Bonderman have been quite good (3.41 and 3.14 ERA's respectively), while Javier Vazquez and Paul Byrd have been pretty bad. Andy Pettitte started the year in AAA, but has gone 4-1 since replacing Byrd last month.

The bullpen has been equally spotty, though they've managed to go 19-9 as a group. Edward Mujica is 5-0 by himself, though Joakim Soria is the only reliever with a sub-4.00 ERA.


Columbus Capitals

If Atlanta is getting all the good luck this season, Columbus is getting all the bad luck. The Capitals have outscored their opponents by nearly 100 runs, but are just 9 over .500 and 3 games back. The team is 1st in the league in batting, 2nd in runs, and 2nd in team ERA, but if the season were to end today, they'd miss the playoffs.

Chase Utley and Manny Ramirez are #1 and #2 in the league in RBI (81 and 80), and they nearly double all of their teammates (Russell Martin is third on the team at 46). Utley may be considered the front-runner for League MVP, leading all of SLB in AVG, SLG and RBI. Carlos Pena has 20 HR (despite missing a month with injury), and Shin-Soo Choo has quietly batted .319 with 28 steals. Overall, the Capitals have been very lucky with injuries, keeping the bench players on the pine.

The rotation for Columbus has been among the league's best. Brandon Webb is in the picture for Cy Young, going 12-5, 2.69 with 120 K's in his first 18 starts. Roy Halladay has won 10 games and struck out 136, while Pedro Martinez (old) and Joba Chamberlain (young) both have sub-4.00 ERA's.

The bullpen has been very spotty, and has cost this team too many games in the late innings. Brian Wilson has been brilliant in the 9th, and Brad Lidge has done his job, but after that, there is a lot of mediocrity. This is the one area the team should look to improve on before the deadline.

New York Knights

The Knights' season so far can be summed up thusly: they've wasted a lot of good pitching with a lousy offense. New York has the 3rd best team ERA, but is dead last in the league in runs scored (at just a hair over 4 runs/game). At 11.5 games back, the season looks more or less over for the Knights unless the hitting heats up in a big way.

The woes of the offense have been personified by Albert Pujols. The superstar slugger has simply not been able to get on track all year, and hits the break with a meager .218/.283/.356 line. The only hitter who is really pulling his weight is David Murphy (20 HR), while Ty Wigginton is playing better than expected. Shane Victorino and Elvis Andrus are both slugging under .400, which just kills a lineup that already has an automatic out in the pitcher's slot.

On the flip side, the pitching has been very good (though the individual win-loss records are, predictably, not very good). Jake Westbrook's 4.36 ERA is the worst in the rotation! Derek Lowe has defied the poor run support and gone 11-4, 3.27 (and should get some Cy Young votes). Ervin Santana has a sparkling 2.87 ERA but has been rewarded with a 4-8 record.

Billy Wagner and Kerry Wood have been great in the late innings, but middle relief has been pretty poor.


Miami Sharks

The Sharks had a terrible run in May and June and are already in sell mode. Miami sent Rich Harden to Jersey City for Dan Hudson and Kevin Youkilis in the league's first trade. The pitching has been middle of the pack in the league, but the offense just hasn't clicked. Does GM Jose Gutierrez continue to sell?

Miami was the last team to have a double-digit home run hitter, though Curtis Granderson is hitting the break red hot (homering in 4 straight games). Despite his power surge, he isn't driving in a ton of runs (18 HR and just 37 RBI). Jorge Posada's 46 RBI lead the entire team. The offense started going south when Brian Roberts got injured and hasn't really recovered.

The "star" pitchers have been a let down, while some lesser known players have stepped up. Rich Harden was terrible for Miami and is now out of town, and Dan Haren hasn't been much better. On the flip side, Mike Pelfrey and Kyle Kendrick have been quite good, and Nick Blackburn has been crazy good (5-0, 0.92 ERA in 6 starts). Chad Bradford has been lights out in the pen, so you wonder if he's on the block...

Thursday, July 8, 2010

2010 Amateur Draft Grades

The 2010 Amateur Draft is complete, so let's take a look at how the teams did.

Kansas Twisters (A+) - The pressure was on with the #1 overall pick, but it's tough to argue with Stephen Strasburg. The 21 year old has two ML ready pitches and good command. Will the Twisters give him a year to develop, or will we see him in the majors this year? As if that wasn't enough, CF Austin Jackson falls to the 2nd round, and OF project Michael Taylor to the 3rd round.

Miami Sharks (A) - An impressive draft for the Sharks, as they picked up three players who all project as future starters. Tracy Pena is a five-tool shortstop who is likely ticketed for the majors sooner rather than later (I mean, Mark DeRosa is playing short right now....) Great value pick with Jay Jackson in the 2nd round, while Desmond Jennings already looks good enough to be the 4th outfielder on some clubs.

Sioux Falls Tomahawks (A-) - The struggling Tomahawks were fortunate to find themselves in the position to draft a potential ace. Many scouts would argue that Yu Darvish was the best player in the draft, and the baseball historians will likely compare his career to Strasburg's for their entire careers. Jenrry Mejia was a great pick in the 2nd round, as four-pitch relievers are a rare find. The 3rd rounder was gravy after the first two, though C Tony Sanchez looks promising.

Columbus Capitals (B+) - Columbus was in the dreaded middle of the order spot in this draft, meaning they weren't going to get a sure thing. Still, things went pretty well for the team, landing lefty Brad Lincoln in the 1st round, and fellow southpaw Craig Kimbrel in the 2nd. GM Darin Keesing lucked out in the third with 2B Scott Sizemore, a player many thought would go in the 2nd round.

La Brea Dire Wolves (B+) - Richard Gin filled a big need with 1st round pick Brett Wallace, an eventual 3B replacement for Michael Young. Hoyt Williams is an atypical SS (good power but slow speed), while P Casey Kelly could be a steal in the 3rd round if his control improves.

Oklahoma City Bison (B+) - The Bison went with three pitchers, starting with the flame-throwing Cuban Aroldis Chapman. If the lefty can develop some control and secondary pitches, he might ace this staff. Drew Storen is a promising late inning reliever, while Barr is a project reliever.

Caracas Bolivares (B) - Despite the roster being strong on offense and thin on pitching, GM Tom Hey went with three bats this draft. SS Starlin Castro looks like the heir apparent to Derek Jeter, and should improve his hitting and power in the minors. Hank Conger is a switch-hitting catcher who at the very least could become a serviceable backup.

Fremantle Cormorants (B) - With the focus on pitching early in the draft, Fremantle was able to land the Winter League MVP Ike Davis 6th pick. Davis hit 15 HR and posted a .981 OPS this winter and probably won't spend too long in the minors. Kevin Russo is an okay 2B, but at age 25, is already pushing "prospect" status.

Jersey City Jackals (B) - All pitching for the Jackals, which was a smart move for a team with a 5.24 team ERA. Kyle Drabek needs more development, but with two good pitches, could be in the majors in a couple of years. Dan Hudson has better control, but needs more work on his stuff, while Moxie Jimenez is a risk/reward prospect who, if he matches his WL numbers, could be the steal of the draft.

New York Knights (B) - Were the Knights sending a message to the under-performing Albert Pujols with their pick of 1B Justin Smoak? If nothing else, it puts Pujols on notice. New York rolled the dice on Mike Leake in the 2nd, hoping his raw skills would develop, while Ron Bailey is a decent if not spectacular relief option.

Quebec Horned Frogs (B) - With the two big arms off the board, picking OF Jason Heyward was a no-brainer with the 3rd overall pick. With Jeremy Hermida's impending free agency, Heyward could find himself in the opening lineup next April. Two more bats round out Quebec's selections, though both need more time to develop.

Springfield Isotopes (B) - Only two picks for the Isotopes, but both were power bats. Mike Moustakas may end up with the best power of anyone in the draft, though he needs to improve his eye and cut down on the strikeouts. His potential future infield partner may be 1B Chris Carter, who also has impressive power skills.

Atlanta Flyers (B-) - Jim Masters' team picked last each round (after picking first overall in the initial draft), so the team wasn't destined to land the very best players. Chili Jackson and Scott Pedrique are decent looking pitchers who could grow into back end rotation guys, but Johnny Cunningham has a long way to go before being MLB ready. Luckily, he's just 19 years old.

Brisbane Koalas (D) - Not a great showing by rookie GM Evan Goforth, as he squandered his high draft position on some questionable picks. 1st round pick Ken Pall is a decidedly average SS who wasn't projected until the late 2nd or early 3rd round. The Koalas need offense, but with players like Austin Jackson and Ike Davis available, the pick is puzzling. The team redeemed itself with Johnny Crasher, whose plus fastball could make him a future setup man/closer.