Winter League has wrapped up and the Amateur Draft is less than a month away. Which players are likely to go in the first round? Who are the sleepers?
Here, we'll break down the eligible draftees by position and venture a guess of how the first draft of the league will go.
STARTING PITCHERS
For the Kansas Twisters (#1 overall pick), the choice will likely come down to Stephen Strasburg or Yu Darvish. Based on their Winter League numbers, they can't really lose with either choice.
The 21 year old Strasburg features a plus fastball and slider, with a good curve and developing change. He went 9-2, 2.72 with 11 QS in 17 Winter League starts. Lefties and righties batted .240 against him, and he struck out 122 batters in 115 innings (vs. 25 walks).
Japanese phenom Yu Darvish is 2 years older than Strasburg, but put up better numbers. Yu features a plus fastball and power sinker, while his secondary pitches (curve/slider) are more polished than Strasburg's. Darvish went 10-2, 1.93 with a league-leading 16 QS. A 1.00 WHIP and .217 OpAvg were extremely impressive.
Though the pre-draft focus has been on these two prospects, this is far from a two-pitcher draft. Here's a look at some of the other starters:
Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman has the strongest arm in the WL, but is still trying to harness his control. He threw 100 K's in 105 IP, but walked 45. This 22 year old has a plus fastball, but needs to improve his other pitches before he will succeed in the majors.
22 year old Kyle Drabek lead the WL with 11 wins (vs. 4 losses), and posted a 3.52 ERA. Like Chapman, he averaged over a K/IP, but struggled with walks. He has four good pitches, but the scouts don't see a "plus" pitch yet. He may be a bit of a project, but has a high ceiling.
Drabek's WL teammate Brad Lincoln also enjoyed success this winter, but went about it in different ways. His K's were lower, but he kept the ball in the yard. This 24 year old lefty had strange reverse splits (lefties hit 100 points higher off of him than righties), but he has four good pitches, 3 of which are very strong.
Jay Jackson is a project player who could reap rewards with some patience. His 76:56 BB:K ratio is troubling, but he held batters to a .246 average while allowing just 6 HR in 106 IP.
Dan Hudson flirted with a perfect record this winter, but settled for 8-1, 3.30 mark. He lacks a plus pitch, and his change up is very raw (which contributed to his 1.38 WHIP).
RELIEF PITCHERS
Lefty Craig Kimbrel averaged a K/IP and held batters to a .195 average (and .293 SLG). He'll give you a heart attack before getting the save (19 walks in 34 IP), but he allowed just 2 of 12 inherited runners to score.
In a small sample size (15 1/3 IP), righty Hank Gonzales went 2-1, 1.17 ERA, holding batters to a .115 average and .173 SLG. He has a good slider, but scouts warn that his fastball is decidedly average.
Jennry Mejia lead the WL in saves (15 in 33 appearances), and is the rare relief prospect with four pitches. He has a plus sinker and a good fastball. He gave up too many extra base hits (.480 OpSLG) and had a 1.37 WHIP, but he stranded 16 of 24 inherited runners.
Right hander Tanner Scheppers is a project. On the plus side, he allowed just 1 HR (in 39 IP) and held opponents to a .231 average. On the negative side, he gave up 31 BB's (to 30 K's) and posted a 1.64 WHIP.
The big dice roll among relievers is Moxie Jiminez. Despite the fact that his sinker and slider have been called "awful", "hopeless" and "career killers" by various scouts, this righty posted a 3.32 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and .234 OpAvg.
CATCHERS
Hank Conger is a rare, switch-hitting backstop. He has a good arm and developing power, but is a defensive liability (13 errors). He hit .300/.378/.430 with 30 doubles.
Another switch-hitter is Dave Holshouser, who scouts call "the most developed hitter among a thin catching class." He was 4th in the league in walks, which lead to a robust .404 OBP.
Left-handed hitter Jason Castro went .322/.390/.479 in a platoon with Jake Ortiz.
FIRST BASEMEN
The prize at this position is Ike Davis, who lead the league in SLG and tied for second in HR. He hit .310/.415/.566 with 15 HR and 50 RBI, all in an inexplicable platoon with Dick Dorgan. Davis walked 41 times while striking out 34.
Logan Morrison doesn't have the measurable physical skills of Davis, but he flourished on a strong offensive squad. 9 HR and a .972 OPS (with no errors) could find him a late first, early second round pick.
23 year old Chris Carter has as much power as Davis, but needs to refine his eye at the plate. He hit 11 HR (to go with 33 doubles), but still strikes out a lot.
Your risk/reward pick at this position is Justin Smoak, a player whose raw skills make scouts drool, but didn't end up with the results at the plate. He hit 8 HR and drew 52 walks (one off the league lead), but hit just .219/.337/.323, hitting just 9 doubles. Bad luck, or bad hitter? Might be the steal of the draft if he develops in someone's minor league system.
SECOND BASEMEN
This position is extremely thin, so Scott Sizemore may be picked higher than he should if a team needs a second baseman. His numbers were decent (.274/.355/.440 with 8 HR), but he's a few years from being MLB ready.
The only other second bagger of note is Kevin Russo, who spent the winter splitting gaps at an alarming rate (50 doubles in 373 AB's). That said, he struck out 72 times and made 7 errors.
THIRD BASEMEN
Mike Moustakas has a lot of raw power, but will take time to catch up to pro-level pitching. He hit 15 HR, but his slow speed resulted in 10 double-plays and just 16 doubles.
Brett Wallace is more or less the same as Moustakas: powerful but slow. His average is better (.293 vs. .263), but he was a few HR behind.
SHORTSTOPS
The infield options get better with a strong SS class. Starlin Castro had surprising power, knocking 10 out of the park and posting a .446 SLG. He had 101 hits and stole 13 bases.
The most major league ready SS is Tracy Pena, a 22 year old righty with great speed and a plus arm. Pena hit .313/.387/.501 with 113 hits and 41 doubles.
John Dietz and Hoyt Williams are similar players who will likely go in the 2nd or 3rd rounds. Dietz had a good hitting line (.291/.367/.443), but his lack of speed (no steals) might push him down to the 3rd round. Williams' line was very similar (.290/.357/.475), but grounded into 14 double plays.
OUTFIELDERS
Jason Heyward will likely be the first hitter taken, possibly in the top 3 picks. The lefty has major league power and lead the WL in HR (17) and RBI (58). His lack of speed hampered his doubles/triples totals, but he walked 53 times and only struck out 57.
The speediest guy in the draft is center fielder Austin Jackson. He lead the league with 17 steals, and plays above average defense at all three OF spots. He'll need to cut down on his K's.
Desmond Jennings is a corner outfielder with plus speed, but for some reason, it didn't translate on the field. He hit .288/.338/.454, but had just 3 steals and struck out nearly 3 times for every walk.
A project player (though already 24 years old) is Michael Taylor. His hitting line was unimpressive (.251/.323/.401), but he knocked 11 out of the park.
Bobby Jackson is not loved by scouts, but put up some impressive numbers. Decent eye at the plate, but poor marks of power and speed, yet he hit .326/.406/.553 with 57 doubles. Are the scouts wrong?
Don't sleep on Adam Piatt, who could develop into a useful player from the 2nd or 3rd round. An .818 OPS with 7 HR is pretty good, so he's worth taking a flyer on.
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